Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Financial collapse leads to war

[Финансовый крах приводит к войне]
[Les US échoueront même à échouer]
[Il crollo finanziario che conduce alla guerra]
[Finanz-Kollaps führt zum Krieg]

[This is a rerun from March of last year, whose time has finally come. With the new year, a sea change seems to have occurred in the financial markets: instead of “melting up,” the way they used to, they have started “melting down.” My original prediction is that this will lead to more armed conflict. Let's see if I was right.]

Scanning the headlines in the western mainstream press, and then peering behind the one-way mirror to compare that to the actual goings-on, one can't but get the impression that America's propagandists, and all those who follow in their wake, are struggling with all their might to concoct rationales for military action of one sort or another, be it supplying weapons to the largely defunct Ukrainian military, or staging parades of US military hardware and troops in the almost completely Russian town of Narva, in Estonia, a few hundred meters away from the Russian border, or putting US “advisers” in harm's way in parts of Iraq mostly controlled by Islamic militants.

The strenuous efforts to whip up Cold War-like hysteria in the face of an otherwise preoccupied and essentially passive Russia seems out of all proportion to the actual military threat Russia poses. (Yes, volunteers and ammo do filter into Ukraine across the Russian border, but that's about it.) Further south, the efforts to topple the government of Syria by aiding and arming Islamist radicals seem to be backfiring nicely. But that's the pattern, isn't it? What US military involvement in recent memory hasn't resulted in a fiasco? Maybe failure is not just an option, but more of a requirement?

Let's review. Afghanistan, after the longest military campaign in US history, is being handed back to the Taliban. Iraq no longer exists as a sovereign nation, but has fractured into three pieces, one of them controlled by radical Islamists. Egypt has been democratically reformed into a military dictatorship. Libya is a defunct state in the middle of a civil war. The Ukraine will soon be in a similar state; it has been reduced to pauper status in record time—less than a year. A recent government overthrow has caused Yemen to stop being US-friendly. Closer to home, things are going so well in the US-dominated Central American countries of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador that they have produced a flood of refugees, all trying to get into the US in the hopes of finding any sort of sanctuary.

Looking at this broad landscape of failure, there are two ways to interpret it. One is that the US officialdom is the most incompetent one imaginable, and can't ever get anything right. But another is that they do not succeed for a distinctly different reason: they don't succeed because results don't matter. You see, if failure were a problem, then there would be some sort of pressure coming from somewhere or other within the establishment, and that pressure to succeed might sporadically give rise to improved performance, leading to at least a few instances of success. But if in fact failure is no problem at all, and if instead there was some sort of pressure to fail, then we would see exactly what we do see.

In fact, a point can be made that it is the limited scope of failure that is the problem. This would explain the recent saber-rattling in the direction of Russia, accusing it of imperial ambitions (Russia is not interested in territorial gains), demonizing Vladimir Putin (who is effective and popular) and behaving provocatively along Russia's various borders (leaving Russia vaguely insulted but generally unconcerned). It can be argued that all the previous victims of US foreign policy—Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, even the Ukraine—are too small to produce failure writ large enough to satisfy America's appetite for failure. Russia, on the other hand, especially when incentivized by thinking that it is standing up to some sort of new, American-style fascism, has the ability to deliver to the US a foreign policy failure that will dwarf all the previous ones.

Analysts have proposed a variety of explanations for America's hyperactive, oversized militarism. Here are the top three:

1. The US government has been captured by the military-industrial complex, which demands to be financed lavishly. Rationales are created artificially to achieve that result. But there does seem to be some sort of pressure to actually make weapons and field armies, because wouldn't it be far more cost-effective to achieve full-spectrum failure simply by stealing all the money and skip building the weapons systems altogether? So something else must be going on.

2. The US military posture is designed to assure Americans of their imagined “full-spectrum dominance” over the entire planet. But “full-spectrum dominance” sounds a little bit like “success,” whereas what we see is full-spectrum failure. Again, this story doesn't fit the facts.

3. The US acts militarily to defend the status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. But the US dollar is slowly but surely losing its attractiveness as a reserve currency, as witnessed by China and Russia acting as swiftly as they can to unload their US dollar reserves, and to stockpile gold instead. Numerous other nations have entered into arrangements with each other to stop using the US dollar in international trade. The fact of the matter is, it doesn't take a huge military to flush one's national currency down the toilet, so, once again, something else must be going on.

There are many other explanations on offer as well, but none of them explain the fact that the goal of all this militarism seems to be to achieve failure.

Perhaps a simpler explanation would suffice? How about this one:

The US has surrendered its sovereignty to a clique of financial oligarchs. Having nobody at all to answer to, this American (and to some extent international) oligarchy has been ruining the financial condition of the country, running up staggering levels of debt, destroying savings and retirements, debasing the currency and so on. The inevitable end-game is that the Federal Reserve (along with the central banks of other “developed economies”) will end up buying up all the sovereign debt issuance with money they print for that purpose, and in the end this inevitably leads to hyperinflation and national bankruptcy. A very special set of conditions has prevented these two events from taking place thus far, but that doesn't mean that they won't, because that's what always happens, sooner or later.

Now, let's suppose a financial oligarchy has seized control of the country, and, since it can't control its own appetites, is running it into the ground. Then it would make sense for it to have some sort of back-up plan for when the whole financial house of cards falls apart. Ideally, this plan would effectively put down any chance of revolt of the downtrodden masses, and allow the oligarchy to maintain security and hold onto its wealth. Peacetime is fine for as long as it can placate the populace with bread and circuses, but when a financial calamity causes the economy to crater and bread and circuses turn scarce, a handy fallback is war.

Any rationale for war will do, be it terrorists foreign and domestic, Big Bad Russia, or hallucinated space aliens. Military success is unimportant, because failure is even better than success for maintaining order because it makes it possible to force through various emergency security measures. Various training runs, such as the military occupation of Boston following the staged bombings at the Boston Marathon, have already taken place. The surveillance infrastructure and the partially privatized prison-industrial complex are already in place for locking up the undesirables. A really huge failure would provide the best rationale for putting the economy on a war footing, imposing martial law, suppressing dissent, outlawing “extremist” political activity and so on.

And so perhaps that is what we should expect. Financial collapse is already baked in, and it's only a matter of time before it happens, and precipitates commercial collapse when global supply chains stop functioning. Political collapse will be resisted, and the way it will be resisted is by starting as many wars as possible, to produce a vast backdrop of failure to serve as a rationale for all sorts of “emergency measures,” all of which will have just one aim: to suppress rebellion and to keep the oligarchy in power. Outside the US, it will look like Americans blowing things up: countries, things, innocent bystanders, even themselves (because, you know, apparently that works too). From the outside looking into America's hall of one-way mirrors, it will look like a country gone mad; but then it already looks that way. And inside the hall of one-way mirrors it will look like valiant defenders of liberty battling implacable foes around the world. Most people will remain docile and just wave their little flags.

But I would venture to guess that at some point failure will translate into meta-failure: America will fail even at failing. I hope that there is something we can do to help this meta-failure of failure happen sooner rather than later.


Winfried said...

Thank you for this article. Frightening in its logic. But it gives a starting point to make sense of some things happening now. I am wondering what role the massive influx of refugees to central and northern Europe from Near and Middle East, Africa, Asia plays in all this. Late effects of Europe's colonialism ? Or another attempt on the part of a global power to plant problems into competing nations?
Best wishes for the New Year!

Wolfgang Brinck said...

I remember that after the US walked away from the Vietnam War, many veterans who had participated in that war felt cheated because they felt that the US could have won the war. They ascribed the "losing" of that war to political interference in the conduct of the war. "Losing" that war deprived them of the trophy they felt was rightfully theirs. It's one thing to get maimed in a war but quite another to get maimed and not get a victory parade when the war is over.
What the US military has been engaged in since the end of the Vietnam war can hardly even be described as war. Certainly it doesn't feel like WWII which had a beginning and an end. The purpose of WWII was also clearly communicated to the nation, i.e. to stop Hitler and the Japanese Emperor. And that message has been broadcast continuously for the last 60 years.
What we have now is some vague war on a concept, namely, terror. Nobody even believes that what our military is doing now can be called war any more. Our military already has bases all over the world, occupying pretty much the whole world with the exception of Russia and China, and we have been led to believe that even China is our territory since we're paying them to make all our stuff.
The world in this view is essentially a US protectorate and everything would be just peachy if not for a few disgruntled and misguided hot-heads who stir up trouble and want to deny their neighbors freedom and democracy which then forces our military to bring them in line. In other words, the US military is having to respond to constant provocation.
After the US is done with bombing the troublesome region, the spotlight of the media moves on to the next trouble spot. The mission of the US military is not unlike that of firefighters, that is to put out fires. Sure, there's room for heroism, but there is no victory parade every time a fire is put out. And like firefighting, the best you can hope for is to put out the fire. You can't necessarily save every building that catches on fire.
Of course, this constant firefighting activity leaves the citizens bored and the military increasingly disillusioned with the apparent lack of purpose for their activities. Hence the need for occasional acts of terror to remind the citizens that all this activity abroad is to prevent more acts of terror at home. The problem on the homefront as you point out is that it is hard to sell a war where all the battles end in what looks a lot like defeat. Perhaps we need to get a new ad agency to put a better face on what we are doing.

Zoltar said...

Most Americans are remarkably conscientious about avoiding meaningful conversation concerning essential, existential issues like the economy, energy, and climate change. I believe, at some deep, visceral level, they do sense that these mega issues are looming over us on the horizon, which tightens their embrace of idiotic distractions like the Kardashians upon which to focus their attention. It’s an accepted alternative to pressing your hands over your ears and yelling “I can’t hear you” over and over.

Occasionally, reference to America’s numerous armed conflicts will slip out, but never framed as a rogue hyperpower’s wanton destruction of a succession of countries that pose no threat to us. It’s always “those countries making trouble over there” which requires, of course, that the United States intervene and straighten things out. Never mind that we started or, at least, exacerbated the troubles in the first place, or that we inevitably abandon the mess we have made without putting any sort of credible solutions in place.

We may not be able to find the offending country on a map, know a thing about their culture, or have the least concern about what is to become of their people after we’ve disrupted their world, but we know one thing for certain: those foreigners must be the bad guys, because we’re fighting them, and we’re The United States of America.

Eddie said...

Hi Dmitry,

I'd be curious to hear your response to Pepe Escobar's recent review of the status quo ante.


Mark P-I said...

At the risk of being called out as a conspiracy theorist, I have just read an article/history(?) on the "Rothschild's Control of Central Banks"
http://www.bushstole04.com/monetarysystem/rothschild_bank.htm ,
and the history of the "Red Sign" seems, for me, to point to the culprits. Their "modus operandi" for centuries seems to be so similar to what you are suggesting regarding creating failure that why should they change a tried and tested scam that leads to their, and only their, "success"? I am at a loss to understand what they think they will gain out of destroying the world, but I suppose sociopathic tendencies must be genetic, and we seem to be incapable of spotting them. (as if most of us have been allowed the time to care!)
I despair for my grandchildren and am selfishly glad that it is unlikely I will see the end result of this ignorant human behaviour.
PS The Chernobyl X 19 effect you suggested in Ukraine in http://cluborlov.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/on-19th-day-of-christmas.html#more
looks like an predictably insane side effect of the "Failure Pill".
Thanks for your work Dimitri it helps me to cope with the madness.

michigan native said...

Well it appears from recent sporting events that were one supposed to be popular entertainment are now being twisted into patriotic orgies and pep rallies for Wall Street and Pentagon patriotic orgies of mass brainwashing and trying to brainwash the 99% that are being screwed that they should sacrifice, and all will be well as long as we elect their latest Stooge (Killary Clinton seems to be the puppet of choice...after all, wouldn't it be great if the US elected a female war pig, like the dupes in Britain did when they selected that pig Thatcher and the other bitch boys for the US)

What an egalitarian nation the US is, to justify provide cover for
their latest oligarch.

The fact is, the neocons have finally worn out their welcome, they are in the death throes of their joyride so try some stupid, vain, and futile attempt to maintain world hegemony over an empire that is collapsing because they are broke and cannot maintain hegemony.It now appears that even their would be allies are running from them, dropping the US dollar in favor of commodities or aa new basket of currencies. The US petrodollar is on the brink of complete and total failure

Sanctions, the IMF, and warfare being challenged by other BRICS nations, now warfare seems to be their solution,just as the late Dr M King Hubbard predicted will not save all the kings horses and all the king's men. We should have turned on the SOBs and given then the Henry the 8th treatment a long time ago.

Helix said...

@Michigan_native: The NeoCons were never welcomed by the majority of Americans, most of whom still really do believe in peace, prosperity, and fair play. Had it not been for the extremely questionable results of the 2000 election, they would have never been able to consolidate their power.

However, consolidate their power they did, and it is now highly unlikely that they will be dislodged by any democratic process, as that process is now totally under their control. Witness the divergence between "official" election results and exit polls, which before 1998 were virtually identical but have since diverged widely. Note also the consolidation of media ownership, thus controlling the message in the arena in which most people form their political views. As time has gone on, many people have become dissatisfied with the current arrangement, but the media have been quite successful at pointing the finger at "liberals" as the problem to a sizable portion of the population. Considering that this same portion is being encouraged to arm themselves, I see a day coming when liberals may become an endangered species -- Fox news will have no problem pointing out who the enemy is when conditions become intolerable.

IMO, the most likely outcome is naked violence. That the NeoCons and their cadre of loyalists are cabable of this has been amply demonstrated in at least six countries since they have come to power. It is only a matter of time before their mentality is directed at "undesirable elements" in the US.

onawing said...

Helix I have witnessed liberals equally capable of voilence. They have a pack mentality just like all the other tribialist ideologies. How many liberal icons have eargerly entered this country into war. Teddy, Woodrow, FDR, Harry, Johnny, Lindon, BJ, Barry. This mantra liberals are peaceful is BS.

Unknown said...

Club Orlov's analysis is "spot on". The financial oligarchy's anticipation of the future is the reason for the frenetic para-militarization of local police throughout the United States, who will be needed to enforce some species of domestic "martial law" under "emergency powers" when the final fatal financial crisis hits. That is, the "war" will be domestic, as well as foreign. No matter, of course, that "martial law" and "emergency powers", as well as any power to embroil the country in aggressive military adventures overseas, do not exist under the Constitution of the United States or the Declaration of Independence. But try to tell that to bewildered Americans (as I have been struggling to do, unfortunately without any measurable success, for quite some time).

Vitaly Purto said...

With all due respect to plausibility of Dmitry's scenario, it gives too much credit to ability of financial cabal to weigh pros and cons. The very foundation of any human endeavor first and utmost is trust. It takes time span across many generations to build one, especially in global finances, which was run by financial aristocracy. Though money did and still do not smell the banker's reputation was the collateral. With advance of new money run by Caliphs for an hour the financial paradigm was reversed to après nous le déluge. So, the current situation is better described by old Russian joke: Wife scolds her husband for being such a looser that even on world championship of loosers he can hope only for the second place. When husband demands an explanation why, wife retorts: because you're such unprecedented looser!

Luckily, there are quite a few people who understand that chaos in Russia may activate mechanism of "dead hand", which is in place and fully functional. Cheap talk about comparing GDP of the US with the same of Russia is just cheap talk. Besides, M-me Clio has strange ways to solve Her problems. Just notice how the most insane Saudi family with their determination to kill American fracking industry to keep their monopoly on oil gave the best solution to environmental problem instead!

"Elderly R" said...


Nice bit of logic. At some point the new Rancher-led rebuild of US moral backbone will succeed (too late IMO) and all hell will break loose internally in US. I believe this will be the circuit-breaker. It will then inspire the 'leftovers' - I'm guessing 100 millions - to turn to threaten the use of N-weapons on RF as a bitter response to their own self-destruction and RF generals will be given the orders for Russia, the Federation and the rest of the world to be rid of these last elite East Coast military industrial security financier people.

phyllis66 said...

Also to be noted, the weaponry of technology can be used on the citizens of America such as mind control weapons all done from a distance and created in the atmosphere. This was sci-fi in the movies of decades ago but is a reality today with the use of magnetic waves or ELF and VLF waves that target certain areas of the brain. They have the ability to create agitation, sleepiness, forgetfulness, or docile human beings. They have sound weapons and microwave weapons that can be used on citizens from the portable beds of small trucks.
If you just start reading what can be done to control humans, a massive uprising of the public could be devastating in short notice.

Gerald Parker said...

Maximise failure! Resultant crack-downs! Sheez, what a policy. This must be what it is like when the film "Idiocracy" comes to pass, even if in a different sort of way.

TheArrowSplitter said...

Read Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine". It's thesis & this author's thesis dovetail quiet convincingly comparably.

DeVaul said...

If a financial oligarchy has taken control of the country, and I don't presume to know for sure, I can at least say from personal observance that the American people helped them every step of the way.

Look at the legions of people who worship Warren Buffet, or as they like to call him: "the Oracle of Omaha", despite the fact that his hedge fund loses money like a rusted gutter and had to be bailed out by the taxpayers. He even bragged about it! People still pay money to sit and eat lunch with him in hopes of getting financial advice. They could get the same or better "financial advice" by watching Scarface.

And who are all those clowns sitting behind Trumpet at his political rallies? I assume it is not a Nazi propaganda type film with the same people being rotated around and filmed at different angles, so it must be a packed house of swindled people supporting a known swindler -- a man who has made a fortune by leaving other people "holding the bag" when his latest multi-million dollar deal spirals down the drain. Every scheme he unleashes on the public pushes its way through the federal court system until it finally drops out in a bankruptcy hearing like a bowel movement with eerie regularity.

Perhaps the oligarchs have finally realized that ultimate mega-failure can only be achieved with the full and lawful consent of the American people.

Is it possible that democracy has finally been achieved? Is this why we try to spread it here and yonder using tanks and bombers? I can already see a future where even kindergarteners are forced to watch a puppet play and then cast ballots -- the simplest and truest form of civics lesson any American child could possibly receive. Of course, they will then be "educated" and the lesson unlearned.

angus said...

The purpose for confusion, failure etc is simple, its all to cover up the cheque kiteing operation at the fed. The fed has been managing bankruptsy since the 1930s. To this it has to propagandaise and/or bribe the whole world, and to control the world's money(sic) supply and thats their aim. When the rates get to zero they have to become more creative.


Brilliant article. Thank you. Impossible not to agree with everything you say.

The bit you left out (as everyone feels they must) is that the criminal oligarchy driving this are centered around a collective of generational Satanists that hide at the center of the tribe that call themselves 'The Jewish People'.

How useful (and cunning) is it for a bunch of supremacist predators to hide at the center of a group that they have branded as victims?

If there is a God would It not warn humanity about this threat? And did It not? Did not Christ come to the Jews are warn them most URGENTLY about the Satanists and Liars that had taken control of their tribe?

We are living through the endgame of what is primarily a SPIRITUAL war, for all reality proceeds from spirit.

Amongst other things we might do, and measures we might take, let us not forget to pray and believe ever more intensely in the presence of the loving, affirming all-creative Spirit that resides in the very heart of ourselves and all else that is.

Unknown said...

As Gandhi said empires come and empires go. The USA capitalist empire is in decline and just like the Brits before them has bankrupted itself with wars and militarism.

Unknown said...

Dear Dimitry Orlov,

you are very insightful . But I hope that the insanity will be avoided! I'm not optimist, rather extremely pessimist seeing the ways Russia it is treated !
Anyhow please accept my compliments for your work and my consideration for all those who made comments on your issues !

TrulyDeeply said...

I saw this explained recently quite well. Pax Britannia gave way to Pax Americana which is giving way to Pax Judaica. There is a financial oligarchy committed to seeing a new world government led from Greater Israel. The government of the U.S. has been hijacked by dual, Israeli-American citizens whose loyalties are suspect and by Zionists of all stripes. There will be blood, especially when Americans wake up to the reality of Israel's direct complicity in the 9/11 false flag operation. It's all or nothing now for the Israel firsters. If 'the final solution' is exposed, there will be a huge crater in the Middle East where Israel used to be.

Ian Fantom said...

Suppose whoever is pulling the strings in the United States is not American and wishes only to use the US. Cui bono? The depopulation of Arabs from the Med to the Euphrates has to be a clue. Any enterprise is dependent on its banker. Israel's banker has been the Rothschild Bank, which is extremely powerful in the United States, as is the Israel Lobby. You don't have to be a 'conspiracy theorist' to read their Wikipedia entry and see that they are an investment bank specialising in wars. We are heading for a US collapse, an expansion of Israel from the Med to the Euphrates, and the Nile to Syria, and an even more powerful Rothschild Bank. Who will lose? Most of us, whether Christian, Muslim, Jew, or anything else.

Unknown said...

A Russian (dear of course) friend referred me to 'Kali Yuga'... I looked it up
and recommend everyone, who does not know what Kali Yuga is or stands for,
to do so too, as it does give some explanation of exactly where we are right now..... It does also talk about a coming 10.000 years of Golden Age.

Laguna Beach Fogey said...

Very good. I would be interested in a more in-depth discussion on the prospects of civil war in America, which I believe are becoming more realistic by the day.

How useful (and cunning) is it for a bunch of supremacist predators to hide at the center of a group that they have branded as victims?

They're not hiding. We see them quite clearly. And they know it.

Keep tabs on your local synagogue and JCC.

michigan native said...

I am loving the taste of vodka these days. I log in, there is a chorus of voices warning of an imminent stock market collapse, others predicting a dollar collapse. Yes, we heard this before but this time it seems to be the big one.

The US has always resorted to war when their economy is in the crappers. Is it just me, or am I sensing a pattern of daily news stories demonizing Iran? All these sudden hostage situations and touchy military escalations. That was the pattern we saw before the neocons manufactured consent to invade or bomb Iraq, Libya, and Syria. (Before that, it was "pineapple face" Noriega, who was a CIA agent that stole some of their drug money, so without any explanation we invaded Panama and all the usual, flagwaving useful idiots were stomping on pineapples in the streets and talking about how much they somehow hated Manuel Noriega)

So here is what I see. Economic collapse on the horizon, the defense contractors and war profiteers witch of choice, Hitlery Clinton, decides to punish Iran by bombing (because they stopped selling their oil in US dollars). When the warfare solution fails to work, people will start to toss their politicians into garbage cans, like they are doing in the Ukraine. (It's a gratifying video to watch if you can google it) If you are not yet in bankruptcy, you will be. Never trust your money to any bank. Apparently I was sued by some lawyer, and judgment rendered against me, which gave some scheister the ability to steal my checking account, money that I had hoped would sustain me during the 2 month recovery period I will need after I get surgery for a life threatening condition that I have been living with. I was never notified that my account was cleaned out and my bankruptcy lawyer didn't warn me that they can actually get away with this, but just like all the rest of those vile, despicable leeches they want to take thousands of your hard earned dollars without any shame and then take the path of least resistance and act like your a pain in the ass because they are eager to suck the blood out of their next host. The mortgage parasites (lawyers) contested my filing, claiming that somehow my little entropy bunker had appreciated in value. Everyone knows housing values have depreciated, they are just being pricks. There are now 6 houses on my block that were foreclosed upon and they are still empty all these years later. So we had to allow some appraiser into the house to take pictures..I post this for all of you to give you an idea of what you will have to go through. Does anyone know how or where I can rent a bull dozer and raze my home if they take it from me? I am serious...

Headsails said...

I love your choice of words and the flow of critical and analytical thought. I'm definitely in agreement. The more I look at politics the more it really does resemble psychological misadventure on the part of the Oligarchs. My belief is that the world central capitalist bankers, having hollowed out the US economy and now has taken this technique global, will fail by virtue of their policy. In other words, the central banking oligarchs will bury themselves eventually by virtue of their own beliefs and practices. Their fatal mistake was to take their tyranny global. This is similar to when Hitler policy tried to go global. It failed. At this point I'm completely on board with Richard Wolff's POV and now will follow very closely Mr. Orlov.

Unknown said...

"The inevitable end-game is that the Federal Reserve (along with the central banks of other “developed economies”) will end up buying up all the sovereign debt issuance with money they print for that purpose, and in the end this inevitably leads to hyperinflation and national bankruptcy"

It seems very clear that the central banking oligarchs know the scriptures well enough to envy Joseph's dynamic accomplishment in Egypt, and have long wished to duplicate the economic strife which led to his result. Namely, that a protracted famine compelled the people of the empire and surrounding lands to bring everything they owned, money, cattle, lands, slaves, and give them to Egypt. Where the largess was then hoarded into Egypt's coffers, making that nation in its day, the wealthiest and most powerful on earth.

The parallel fails however in that God permitted the then events for the preservation of life, whereas the oligarchs mean it for the destruction of everyone's life but their own.