Saturday, May 30, 2020

The Fate of Eastern Europe

People in the West tend to be overly concerned with the goings on in China. But they really don’t need to worry; China will do just fine without them. Indeed, even as the US registers a 50% GDP decline in the second quarter of 2020, China is back to economic growth. People in the West also tend to be overly concerned about the Middle East, mostly because that is where a lot of their oil comes from. But they really don’t need to worry about it either, or about where their oil comes from; what they should worry about is being able to pay for it with worthless money they are printing into existence. They also tend to worry about the Middle East because that’s where the tiny but pugnacious state of Israel is situated. They don’t need to worry about it either; there is a very nice, underpopulated Jewish Autonomous Region within the Russian Federation, on the border with China, to which Israelis will be able to evacuate once US financial and military support for Israel dries up. It is the only autonomous region left within the Russian Federation, kept separate, instead of being merged in with the much larger Khabarovsk region, for just such an eventuality. Instead, what the West should worry about is the great ark of incipient instability just to the east of it, extending from the Baltic to the Black sea and all the way up to the Great Wall of Russia.

Continue reading... [on SubscribeStar] [on Patreon].

Monday, May 25, 2020

Transcript: Geopolitics and Empire Interview

Dmitry Orlov returns to the Geopolitics & Empire podcast for the third time.

He is a well-known Russian-American writer, blogger and author. His works include The Five Stages of Collapse; Shrinking the Technosphere, and many others that you can find at ClubOrlov.blogspot.com.

We will be discussing the ensuing [impending] global economic collapse which he warned about many years ago. We’ll also get his thoughts on the geopolitical situation, all in the context of the coronavirus pandemic.

Let me just remind listeners to subscribe to all our channels on social media. Share, Like, leave us a podcast rating and review, and please do bookmark and please do subscribe to our new channels on Bitchute and Brighteon because YouTube is censoring everyone and anyone who questions the narrative these days.

You can also leave us a donation on Bitcoin, PayPal, Patreon or our new SubscribeStar. I also urge listeners to subscribe to our email list that includes our weekly interview and collection of news headlines.

So now on to Dmitry. How are you doing these days?

Continue reading... [on Patreon] [on SubscribeStar]

Friday, May 22, 2020

Interview on Geopolitics and Empire

Dmitry Orlov gives his view on the pandemic and ensuing economic collapse. He looks at the dire situation facing the U.S., its dollar status, and the disintegration of the political system. He talks about his changed view on the climate movement and its liberal dogma. He gives his take on China, Russia, Putin after 2024, and the potential for military conflict. Finally, he provides an outline for what people should be doing to prepare as the crisis gets underway.

Listen [on SoundCloud] [on YouTube]

Friday, May 15, 2020

The Coronavirus of Kindness

[Em português: O Coronavírus da bondade]

What will happen with the terrible-horrible-awful not-so-novel-any-more coronavirus from Hell? My guess is that SARS-Cov-2 (its official name) will go the way of SARS-Cov-1 which I can’t possibly blame anyone for not remembering. These two viruses are 80% identical and both are thought to have originated in bats. But they behave differently. No. 1 causes symptoms to appear soon after infection and although it doesn’t spread as ferociously as No. 2, it kills a lot more of the people it infects. No. 2 is so contagious that at this point containing it seems an unlikely prospect anywhere in the world, and even strenuous efforts to slow its spread haven’t made much of a difference.

But No. 2 has its good side: it kills a tiny percentage of the people it infects and in its lethality it is similar to other, familiar flu viruses. In fact, now that the coronavirus pandemic has reached a plateau or is declining throughout much of the world, it looks as if No. 2 won’t significantly affect statistics on mortality except perhaps in Belgium, San Marino and Andorra. After adjusting for population growth and an aging population in many countries, mortality is currently lower than it had been throughout most of the recent years. In spite of these differences, No. 1 and No. 2 have two major similarities: first, both were relentlessly hyped; and second, as I believe the near future will show, both will have disappeared without a trace.

But then there is one major difference between No. 1 and No. 2. Whereas No. 1 was just a bad boy virus—a minor nuisance that resulted in just 700 deaths (a little less than 0.000001% of humanity)—a solid case can be made that No. 2, in spite of already having killed 0.003% of humanity and on track to kill 0.001% more, is a good virus—so good that I am tempted to call it God’s gift to humanity. To quote from Goethe’s Faust, No. 2 might say, in its own defense: “I am part of that power which eternally wills evil and eternally works good.” Since this may seem shocking, please let me explain exactly what I mean by that.

Continue reading... [on SubscribeStar] [on Patreon]

Friday, May 01, 2020

Gaslighting the Coronavirus

For the past few days I have been holding back on commenting on current events, all of which revolve around the new coronavirus panic, and doing as much research as I could because the substance of what’s happening has been unclear to me.

• Why shut down the global economy because of a virus that isn’t particularly dangerous and has only been responsible for just over 1% of the deaths so far this year and has only affected 0.04% of the population and has killed off a mere 0.0028% of it?

• Why quarantine healthy people instead of just the old and the sick? (In Sweden, to take a typical example, 90% of the fatal cases were among those older than 70.)

• Why shut down schools and confine children indoors if they don’t even get sick from this virus?

• Why tell people to remain indoors when lack of sunlight, exercise and exposure to a wide variety of antigens leads to weakened immune systems and higher rates of infection?

• Why struggle to create a vaccine and vaccinate everyone when this virus happens to be a safe, effective and freely available inoculant against itself for the vast majority of healthy people?

• Why emphasize artificial lung ventilation when (in New York, for example) 80% of the patients who are hooked up to ALV machines die?

• Why tell everyone to wear face masks when they only stop 95% of virus particles (at best) and so delay the amount of time it takes to get infected from 10 seconds to as much as three minutes?

After some research and some thought I have been able to arrive at a single answer to all of these questions. But first, let’s examine some of them.

Continue reading [on SubscribeStar] [on Patreon]

Friday, April 17, 2020

Update 1

Update to the update: It looks like it was a mistake and they revised it back to 2174. The  model is back on track. Our model is an effective instant bullshit detector.
 
-----------------

All of today’s delta of 5.2% came from a single-day doubling in US COVID-19 deaths. This chart shows only US deaths as reported daily.


This data doesn't fit any model except the one where US medics and coroners write COVID-19 on death certificates without bothering to verify that the novel coronavirus is the cause of death. This is the result of a political rather than a medical or a scientific decision. Garbage data isn't worth modeling: garbage-in, garbage-out.

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

A Simple Model of the Coronavirus Pandemic

Take a Petri dish, fill it with agar, put a drop of bacteria sample in it, close it and put it in a warm place. The bacteria will grow explosively at first but then growth will slow down and eventually stop completely once the bacteria have consumed all the nutrients the agar can provide. Mathematically this process can be characterized quite accurately using the logistic function:


The logistic function also works well for characterizing pandemics, since the underlying process is similar. Rate of growth of bacteria depends on the number of bacteria and slows down as nutrients run out; rate of spread of infection depends on the number of infected individuals and slows down as the number of individuals left to infect declines.

Mathematical models can be arbitrarily complicated and, as an immediate consequence, arbitrarily wrong. It is possible to fit a polynomial to just about any data just by adding enough terms to it, but the predictive value of such an exercise is pretty much nil. The logistic model is simple. It uses just three parameters: midpoint, maximum and growth rate. And it models real, physical phenomena that are ubiquitous in nature: exponential growth and exponential saturation.

In modeling the coronavirus pandemic, we had to add a fourth parameter: a small offset. This is because the Chinese data, for whatever set of reasons, is difficult to treat as part of the world model. In mid-February the coronavirus jumped petri dishes, if you will. After that point the petri dish became the entire planet.

Sunday, April 12, 2020

Hermitix Podcast: Coronavirus, Economics and Culture

YouTube link

Supporting Hermitix:

Due to the ongoing Coronavirus epidemic my future employment is uncertain at best. As such I believe it’s finally time that I turn Hermitix into everything it can be. I have updated the Patreon page with new and unique rewards alongside adding in 3 clear stretch goals. The purpose of these stretch goals is to allow me to pursue the continuation of Hermitix as a full-time job.

The first goal is a mere $1000 per month, this is the smallest amount I can live off. I will work on Hermitix as much as did when I was a joiner, 44 hours per week. The quality will not diminish and the quantity will be raised. Full-time Hermitix will commence 2 months after reaching the first stretch goal, allowing me ample time to get my affairs in order and produce a backlog of content.

Becoming a Patron today not only allows for the indefinite continuation of Hermitix, but also allows you to become part of something much larger. The rewards for becoming a Patron include: Discord access, eBooks, Paperbacks, Merchandise and Influence.

Please support Hermitix at:
Hermitix Patreon
Hermitix Merchandise
One off Donations at Ko-Fi
Hermitix Twitter

Friday, April 10, 2020

Coronavirus Crisis: Danger and Opportunity

“There is a lot happening in the world all at once right now. The entire planet is rapidly reconfiguring itself. The world is begging for a new post-capitalist, post-industrial order to be born…”—a quote from Orlov’s latest book The Meat Generation, published before the current crisis kicked off. The large scale, hierarchically-organised, and centrally controlled systems in energy, industry, transport, health, banking, politics–and more–upon which our modern societies depend, have once again proven dangerously unstable and inadequate when faced with serious challenges.

In the case of the current coronavirus meltdown, the real crisis has been the fear, panic, and craven capitulation with which so many have blindly reacted. Theories and speculation abound as to where all of this is taking us and just what a post-coronavirus future may hold. Based on events thus far, however, the wholesale compromise and loss of freedoms of speech, association, assembly, and travel, and the right to choose in health care, appears entirely possible. Whatever happens, a comprehensive return to ‘business as usual’ seems highly unlikely. The planet is indeed being reconfigured, in ways that are only just beginning to make themselves known.

(Stream/download audio)

Wednesday, April 08, 2020

Flunking The Coronavirus Test

With all the ink being spilled over the topic of SARS-Cov-19 and COVID-19 and its various ramifications and effects, you might think that there is little to add. However, I am yet to see an article on the coronavirus as a test—not in the sense of a test for the presence of the virus or antibodies to it, but it as a test of us, as individuals, families, communities and entire nations. Already we see its effects range from relatively benign to unmitigated disaster. As always, to blame the test for one’s failure to pass it is to invite laughter at one’s own expense.

Those likely to flunk a test may prefer to refuse to take it. But refusing to take the coronavirus test is hardly an option. According to many epidemiologists, around 80% of the world’s population will eventually be exposed to this virus. A Machiavellian prince ruling over a primitive society that doesn’t have even a rudimentary public health care system could simply ignore it. Then, based on the presently available, inconclusive numbers, somewhere around 4% of the population will die, but the majority of them will be either old, sick or both. The prince would welcome this, thinking that old and sick people are a burden, so good riddance! He might even try to make some political hay out of the situation: since the virus has a foreign source, those it infects are also somehow foreign, or foreign-influenced, and therefore traitors who deserve this affliction as a sort of supernatural punishment. Referring to SARS-CoV-19 as “the Chinese virus” is very much along these lines.

Continue reading... [on SubscribeStar] [on Patreon]