[An excellent submission from a reader. The topic is Ukraine, but the principle applies wherever emperors parade about naked.]
What if Putin, being a strategic thinker that he is in addition to being a master in judo, has an intention to make not just eastern Ukraine but the whole Ukraine a failed-state-showcase of what happens when the US, Nato, EU, and the IMF causes havoc in eastern Europe. Maybe he is giving a lesson to Germany, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, etc. and especially his fellow Russians what happens when the US supports the rabid fascists in their region.
He realizes that the neo-cons and the Atlanticists, being the mindless psychopathic and sociopathic killers that they are, are incapable of grasping the lessons and consequences of their actions and will press ahead uninterruptedly and fail to see the trap that is being laid in front of them. Remember that psychopaths always think that they’ll never get caught, that they’re invincible and they, until the very last moment, will always deny their doom (just ask Napoleon and Hitler). So what if Putin’s strategic advisors egged on the Kiev regime to bomb unimportant civilian locations making them think that there was concentrated partisan militia and now scattering the militia in various areas where they can take down invididual KJ troops. Could it be Putin’s motive to get the KJ bogged down in eastern Ukraine and at the same time causing increasing revulsion of the people in Russia proper.
It’s one thing for the patriotic Russian media to educate on how the US caused mayhem and failed states in Libya and Iraq. It’s quite another to show that the US is causing this same mayhem and failed state right on their border and in the process killing innocent Russians. Indeed by demonstrating the barbarity of the US and its KJ puppets, Putin may in fact be delivering a blow to the fifth columnist pro American forces in Russia. “See what your American friends are doing to our people”. To the sixth columnists that Joaquin mentioned, Putin can call their bluff and tell them “If you’re so upset at what’s happening in Donetsk, don’t get angry at me. Why don’t you start mobilizing and organizing your own people and the public to volunteer to help out the resistance. Either put up or shut up.”
The US and Nato have nothing positive and constructive to offer. All they can do is create mayhem, death and failed states. That’s all they know how to do. All they can do is blackmail, sanction and threaten states like Bulgaria into not letting a gas pipeline through their territory. Now I’m absolutely certain that the whole of eastern Europe and Germany will eventually come on the side of Russia. I have no doubt now. The truth is so obvious. If Putin had intervened right away in eastern Ukraine then this process of Europe and Russia learning about the US and Nato would have been pre-empted. Putin wants this process to continue to its conclusion. Unfortunately innocent people will die but sometimes a few have to be sacrificed so the world can learn the truth. I’m sorry but that’s how the world and politics work.
Putin is showing us what a foreign policy driven by a dispassionate assessment of realistic national interests looks like, as opposed to a foreign policy driven by an awkward fusion of soft-headed sentimentality and deluded "exceptionalism" hype, which is what we've become accustomed to seeing over here since at least the Clinton administration.
I believe that the prize, as far as Putin is concerned, is Crimea. The Western press still vaguely remembers Ukraine at this point, but has utterly forgotten Crimea. Crimea has Russia's major naval port of course, but that may not even be the most important thing. Geologists seem pretty sure that there are billions of barrels of oil hiding under the Black Sea. Turkey has already spent hundreds of millions of dollars exploring its own territorial waters in the Black Sea for oil. Crimea-- specifically Crimea's territorial waters-- could very well be an important source of petroleum in the near future once developed.
I don't think Putin wants to annex east Ukraine. If he isn't a fool-- and he doesn't seem to be-- then he knows that the responsibility for rebuilding a failed state is a liability, not an asset. But keeping tanks on the border and "allowing" armed irregulars to filter into eastern Ukraine keeps Ukraine's excuse for an army weak and distracted. Ukraine can't do anything about Crimea because they have to deal with the more immediate threat in east Ukraine. Or to put it in chess terms, "the threat is stronger than the execution." Some might say it's cold to leave the Russian separatists in east Ukraine twisting like that, but there again, a chess player can't be too sentimental about the pawns he needs to sacrifice.
If I'm right, Russia will get the lion's share of offshore oil believed to be underneath the Black Sea, and they get to keep their naval base, and (as a bonus) they no longer have to subsidize Ukraine's natural gas needs. US/EU gets the responsibility for rebuilding the failed state of what's left of Ukraine, plus the PR disaster for their complicity in the human rights abuses in eastern Ukraine, plus the need to bail Ukraine out from under their enormous existing national debt in the near future. Ukraine, for its part, will get mayhem, grinding poverty, and IMF-enforced austerity/looting.
And as you say, the fiasco in Ukraine is something Putin can always point to in the future as being the inevitable result of closer EU/NATO ties, and not even because of anything Russia has done but because of the undisguised imperialism and corruption of the EU and NATO themselves. Suddenly EU and NATO membership will look a lot less attractive to the countries of Eastern Europe.
"...emperors parade about in naked shorts." Cute!
This theory absolutely has merit. Destroying things (states) is a lot easier than putting them together, due to basic laws of entropy. Therefore if taking down states (easy) is all your opponent ever does, you know that's probably all they're capable of doing. Therefore you know that opponent is weak. Therefore the less you (Putin) do, the better. Why expend a bunch of effort to knock down an opponent if you know he'll fall flat on his face if you simply wait long enough?
brilliant analysis! thats why i read you, because who else has your perspective.
I'm not about to mistake Putin for a nice guy. But I envy Russia for having a president that actually cares about, and makes realistic decisions based on the needs of their nation.
If only the US had such a leader. Instead we just have mindless blathering puppets.
as I perceive the comments ( as a reader of the saker)on your side, they are to me to be read worthwhile.
This to me is a statement about charakter. I'm back soon
this post is helpful
Chicago boys alive and well!
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