Saturday, February 22, 2014

Shock over Ukraine


Pawel Kuczyński
[Update: I am pushing this live a few days early, because the Ukrainian situation is evolving so rapidly. One political corpse (Yanukovych) is out; apparently he has fled to Russia. Another political corpse (Tymoshenko) has been hastily rehabilitated and is ready to be put on the ballot for elections in May. Question is, Will there still be a country for her to (pretend to) run? Financial reserves are down to a few days, federal structures are being dismantled throughout the country, regional governors are fleeing, and a default on some €60 billion of Ukrainian bonds, many held by Russian banks, seems likely. Could this be just the kind of financial contagion needed to finally pop the ridiculous US equities bubble? At least two Ukrainian provinces are openly talking secession; one (Crimea) wants to immediately join Russian Federation. A question for US State Dept. flunkies and EU functionaries: What does that do to your geopolitical calculus? At risk are five nuclear power plants and a lot of Russian gas that transits Ukraine on its way west. Ukraine is shaping up to be a lot like Yugoslavia, except with more than twice as many people, lots of crazed street fighters who think they now own the place, and a role critical to European energy security. If you aren't in shock about this, then you haven't been paying attention.]

I've been receiving a lot of emails asking me what I thought was happening in Ukraine. It took me a while to formulate an opinion, but what I now think is happening is this: a complete and utter failure of politics on every level.
Everyone has failed: the EU representatives, the US State Department with its Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland, the Yanukovych government, its political opponents, and the Kremin. And now they are all in shock and nobody knows what to do. Except for the protesters, who do know what to do: continue to protest. Most of them don't even know what it is they are protesting, but, in essence, they are protesting the very existence of their country, which is made up of two parts: Eastern Poland, which is Ukrainian-speaking and predominantly Catholic, and Western Russia, which is Russian-speaking and predominantly Orthodox. The “Russians” outnumber the “Ukrainians” two to one. The ultimate resolution to the crisis lies in partitioning the country. Nobody has the stomach to even talk about it—yet. But until that happens we will continue being subjected to this strange spectacle, where every single actor in Ukraine does everything possible to undermine the country's political system. Deep down, the Ukrainians don't want there to be a different government in Kiev—they don't want there to be a government in Kiev at all.

I now turn it over to Andrey Tymofeiuk, a Kiev resident who posted the following on his Facebook page, in obscenity-riddled Russian. (The Russian language is remarkably rich in obscenities, which pack tremendous expressive power but don't translate into English with its paltry collection of four-letter words.) I think he provided a good, information-rich summary of the situation from all the angles, his graduate-level potty-mouth notwithstanding, so please give him props. Translation and clean-up are mine.


I think that the current situation is such that everyone is in terrible shock over what's happening.

The EU representatives are shocked most of all. They were playing at being skillful diplomats, who stooped to work with the barbarous dictator of a third-world country. He was supposed to quiver with anticipation over his handout, in the form of an EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, which would have allowed him to don the mantle of the great Euro-integrator and win the 2015 elections.

Gazing down from their lofty diplomatic perch, these experts were blindsided when the barbarous dictator suddenly decided to do a bit of arithmetic, spotted a flaw in the deal (Ukrainian national bankruptcy) and swiftly decided to take his 46 million slaves away from the EU and give them to Moscow instead. And then, due to their ridiculous bureaucracy and complete lack of understanding of Ukrainian reality, they allowed an initially peaceful protest to develop into something like civil war.

The EU representatives really don't need a bloody quagmire with a humanitarian crisis, hundreds of thousands of refugees, terrorist attacks, tanks on the streets and other such joys, and they will try to do all they can to prevent it, even if this means that the thick-headed barbarous dictator has to stay in power. But the problem is that the barbarous dictator seems to have lost his mind.

Now the EU representatives will have to answer some very difficult questions from television viewers back home. Such as: “Why are the people waving EU flags wearing Nazi emblems? Are we supporting Nazis?” or “If they are peaceful, then why are they throwing Molotov cocktails at policemen and taking them hostage?” That's just for starters. Here is a more serious question: “Do we really want 46 million of these violent barbarians to join the EU?” And how about this one: “What makes you think that the five Ukrainian nuclear power plants will remain safe if the country falls into chaos?” Just one more, but it's a doosie: “If Ukraine becomes ungovernable, how are we going to get our fix of Russian natural gas next winter? Are we going to freeze to death?” But the EU representatives may not have to field such questions much longer because their diplomatic careers may be at an end. After all, they haven't been too effective, have they? To transform a perfectly peaceful protest into a bloody mess is not exactly the pinnacle of European diplomacy. A few mid-level al Qaeda operatives could have managed the job just as well.

Ukrainian opposition leaders are in shock as well. They were all ready to use the energy of the demonstrators to advance their own political ambitions—but now these ambitions seem rather beside the point. They are politicians, not field commanders, and now they don't know what to do. Their task is an immensely intricate one: on the one hand, they must act like ardent revolutionaries, or the crowd will turn against them, haul them off the podium and string them up; on the other hand, they have to placate the Europeans and somehow make them believe that they still have influence, that this is still a peaceful protest, and that they are not leading illegal combatants to overthrow lawful authority, but legitimate, peaceful protesters. They still hope that the Europeans will give them jobs in the new puppet government once this is all over. So far, this is not working, and they themselves no longer believe that they are in control of anything. They sign agreements to end hostilities, and hostilities continue.

The barbarous dictator, Yanukovych, is in shock too. His luck has been quite good until now, but has suddenly run out. He rose from low ranks, became one of the kingpins of the Donbass region, survived the collapse of 2004 and then got rich and built himself a palatial estate complete with a Solid Gold Toilet. Up until now he had several different ways of winning the elections in 2015. After that, he could have borrowed a page from Lukashenko's playbook and fashioned himself into Ukraine's president-for-life. But now that dream is gone.

He had a couple of chances to resolve the situation, but he made missteps, constantly listening to the hard-liners in his administration, and now the situation is serious and his options quite limited. After the events of February 18 there is no way for him to even claim to be a caretaker president, in power until the 2015 elections. His special forces can't disperse the protesters. He was counting on Putin's help, but Putin is less than pleased with his avarice and stupidity, and is noncommittal even about granting him asylum should he need to escape from Kiev. Plus, he'd be leaving behind the Solid Gold Toilet. But if he sticks around the people might hang him. He has gone from trying to survive the next election to trying to survive until the next election.

The administration's hard-liners are in shock too. They sincerely believed that all they have to do is wave some night-sticks and the crowds will disperse. They trucked in special forces, traffic cops, criminals under their control, assorted zombie idiots, and ordered them all to attack the protesters. They tried it once—nothing; tried it again—still nothing. Protesters aren't dispersing. Just the opposite: the more they beat on the protesters, the more their numbers grow and the more violent their tactics become. Once they saw an armored personnel carrier —a symbol of their invincibility—engulfed in flames, their hands started to shake. They don't think that Yanukovych will abandon them, but what can he do? Order in the army? But the army people haven't been placated with special privileges like the special forces and the police, don't have much to lose, and could easily cross over to the other side.

The special forces are in even greater shock. A lot of them also worked as policemen, happily beating up football hooligans and collecting bribes from businessmen. And now they are confronted with a most unwelcome situation: the hooligans and the businessmen are united against them. In the beginning it was fun for them—beat on defenseless people in the center of Kiev, receive medals and money, and go home. But things have dragged on and on. The the stupider ones (the majority) are now furious, can't understand why they haven't been ordered to just shoot everyone, and think that Yanukovych is a sissy. The smarter ones (the minority) understand full well how dangerous that would be. First of all, success is not guaranteed and losses are likely to be high on both sides—but they have no desire to lay down their lives in defence of the Solid Gold Toilet. Second, even if they manage to suppress and disperse the protesters, the day after that they would start getting killed off one by one, because there exists a database with their names and addresses. Unlike the higher-ups in the administration, they won't have the chance to flee abroad, and will stay to experience popular anger firsthand. They really want Yanukovych to magically return the situation to the way it was before, but the probability of this happening is dropping every day.

The Kremlin is in a bit of shock as well. They were carefully masterminding the situation, supporting the Donbass thugs, gradually ramping up their influence in Ukraine and buying up key stocks. They were methodically planning to annex half of Ukraine as a “voluntary incorporation.” But then this idiot Yanukovych started giving them a hard time trying to extort money in return for joining the Customs Union, and then he made a series of mistakes leading to the current disaster—in the middle of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, no less! The right thing to do would be to send tank columns into Donbass and Crimea, but that would put a damper on the Olympics. Plus, nothing is ready—Ukraine is not tiny Georgia, and a beautiful textbook military operation would not be possible without preparation. And a less-than-stylish military operation could lead to visa problems and international banking difficulties for the Russian leadership at a minimum, and World War III at a maximum.

The Kremlin's propaganda people are observing the formation of the contemporary Ukrainian nation right on the streets of Kiev, and they are crying bloody tears. How are they going to be able to explain to these people that their country is not Ukraine but “Little Russia,” that their national language is made up, and that they should come home to Mother Russia and start sending their taxes to Moscow? More importantly, what about the average Russian, who is used to thinking that “nothing can be done” but is now seeing right on his television screen how for three months now special forces, armed to the teeth, haven't been able to do much of anything to put down a ragtag mob of provincials? Thoughts are starting to course through his brain—dangerous thoughts. And the average Belarussian is even further ahead in his thinking. He has stopped looking at the television screen, has walked over to the window, and is looking at the door of the nearest government office, where local officials recently beat a bribe out of him.

The Americans and the Brits are also in shock. They couldn't possibly care any less about the sufferings of the Ukrainian aborigines. All they care about is that Russia doesn't grow stronger. Until recently Yanukovych seemed like a pleasant sort of dictator—not too accommodating toward the Russians, and willing to talk business with the West, about shale gas and other natural resources in particular. But now there's a bloody mess, with Molotov cocktails, troop carriers on fire, catapults, snipers... They could dismiss Yanukovych, but then who would honor all the agreements and contracts he has signed? And who will they talk business with? The guerilla warrior nationalists from The Right Sector? The club-wielding Cossacks? And what if the Russians achieve some kind of breakthrough, absorb Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine into the Russian Federation, and grow even stronger?

Even China has something to think about. China has its own interests in Crimea, and is not so much shocked as perplexed: why can't the local barbarian put down his opponents? There was a similar problem in China in 1989 on Tiananmen square, but there they mowed down hundreds of unarmed students without any undue excess of emotion and it was all over quickly. The West grumbled for a bit, but then resumed economic cooperation as if nothing happened. The Chinese can't grasp why this dictator can't do the totally obvious thing, but in general they don't care. Ukraine is far away, and they have no desire to play a part in Eastern European conflicts. They have more important things to think about, like winning every single medal at the Olympic games in 2016 and putting a red flag on Mars.

The active population of Kiev has been in shock for a few months now, continuously, more and more every day. But at some point shock was replaced with active enthusiasm: it is better to go carry medicine to the wounded and to hurl shingles at police on Independence Square than to watch horrors unfold on television.

The passive population of Kiev is still quietly drinking beer and poking around with social networking apps. They don't understand what's happening yet. But if the unofficial state of emergency (including limitations on access to the city) last a few more days—and food and drink running out—then they will end up in a state of shock more serious than anything they have ever experienced.

So, who isn't in shock? I saw him today on Independence Square: a Cossack dressed in national garb, who, with a smile on his face, was marching off to skirmish with the special forces. In one hand he held a shield with “Glory to Ukraine” written on it, and in the other a frighteningly big club. He was singing a patriotic song. It occurred to me that this man isn't bothered by questions such as “How will I get home tonight?” or “What if something happens to me?” or “What is going to happen to us all?”

He isn't in shock. He no longer gives a damn, bless him.

24 comments:

Mark Sebela said...

My Grand parents, Baba & Dido, left/escaped the Ukraine in the late 1920s or early 1930s and came to Canada. What happened over there was never talked about. No one ever came for a visit. I wonder if I'm related to the guy with the club?

10100003 said...

Been looking for a good summary of what was going on. Excellent!! Would be great if you could bring us more Russian/non-english texts. Wouldn't mind paying some $ for the work as I enjoy this site so much. cheers

ed boyle said...

20% Russian and 80% Ukrainian from What I have googled so only the East and Crimea could go to Russia (and Crimea is tatar-muslim- 12%/Russian 60%/Ukrainian 25%).

My wife read up on the chaos from some Kiew blogger last night. The city is a chaos. For example the parliament who voted to get rid of janukowich did so against normal process of constitution under duress by armed dmeonstrators (100% voted for the resoltuion) and only 300 of 400 were there but enough for a 3/4 majority. People are fleeing the city.

The French/German and Polish foreign ministers who visited a few days ago had to flee or get killed by the mob.

The mob formed militia was according to this formed by ex-ukrainian israeli military types and the local synagogue has recommended all jews to abandon the city(pogrom fears by nazi right wing svoboda(freedom)-led by a man whose grandma is jewish by the way).

Russia has emergency plans to seal the border to Ukraine.

One wonders if the EU and Russia will have to move in and restore order under UN mandate. At any rate if bankruptcy ensues then cooperation fo Russia and EU must be accepted in a Greek type "EU-Troika" solution to keept the country going while they solve their problems and get a working govt. The mob wil have to go home to tend their farms in the countryside and as the stores have been all looted and destroyed in kiev the food supplies will run out there so they will have to leave. The local population will some day rise up against the west ukrainian terror and want a normal life again in the capitol.

Phil Harris said...

Just an afterthought. Ukraine was in contention last year for 2nd place in the list of world exporters of wheat + coarse grains (barley, rye, oats and corn/maize). World importers are also of interest.

Dmitry Orlov said...

Ed-

The stats you mention are meaningless, because the split is by cultural affiliation, not language. Ukraine is 2/3 Russian-speaking, and Russian accounts for between 2/3 of all media, education and business use. The rest of what you say rings true.

Wolfgang Brinck said...

We spent a few weeks in western Ukraine last year. In Lviv, there was a bar with a WWII resistance theme. To enter, you had to pass a Kalashnikov toting man in a partisan costume. The pass phrase was Slava Ukraini (Hail Ukraine!) Once acknowledged, you got a shot of vodka and descended into a warren of underground passages whose walls were covered with resistance era photos of partisans camped in the woods and such. The menu likewise was resistance themed with menu items such as Patriot's Delight. All very much fun, and at the time I thought, how clever to turn resistance into a westernized commodity and make money off it.
Only now, the resistance is once again the real thing and not a decorating scheme for a theme bar/restaurant. I wish the Ukrainians well.

Nathan Donaldson said...

The West seems to be giving the protesters in Ukraine almost universally good press. I wonder if this might not quickly piss backwards. I can think of at least two ethnically divided countries in the EU, Italy & Spain, that likewise have chronically corrupt governments and economic depression.

And doesn't Putin ultimately have the EU by the balls. If they would impose any kind of economic sanctions couldn't he just cut off their energy supply?

exiledbear said...

Oh there's nothing quite as savory as the taste of good old fashioned slavic sarcasm. It warms the cockles of my cold cold heart.

I guess the lesson to be learned is if you're going to use violence against protesters, you must not be show as weak and incompetent or the first ones out the gate will be joined by others with more substantial resources who were holding back to see what would happen.

And when people are building earthworks and firebombing APCs, that's not a protest anymore, that's what do the Americans call it? A Low Intensity Conflict?

bdoran said...

I think you’d have to had to worked for our elites on weighty matters such as War (myself) or Finances (many others) to appreciate this fully: Their Nihilism is as comprehensive as all the Ruin they have so far given us. What I mean is it’s not neck or nothing with them, it’s every neck on the way to nothing.

For instance the ultimate result of the IMF’s current machinations will be the destruction of the very International System and indeed International Capital system that made them.

The Guillotine is not a method with them, it’s the very Goal.

They are indeed Zhang’s 7 Kill Stele Incarnate. .

天生萬物以養人
人無一善以報天
殺殺殺殺殺殺殺
Heaven brings forth innumerable things to nurture man.
Man has nothing good with which to recompense Heaven.
Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill. Kill.

GHung said...

What we have here is an ongoing case of Limits To Growth merging with (promoting, actually) Collapse of Complex Societies; peripheral dominoes falling into chaos. The pattern is hard to see amongst the complexity, but the trend is clear. It comes down to resources in the end; little else. We paint it over with stories of ethnic divisions, historical tensions, and bitter roots from the past, but it’s about stuff. Always has been.

Most folks in the west don’t consider that this can have some very real economic impacts on what they pay for commodities, etc. Ukraine is the world’s third largest exporter of corn, the largest exporter of sunflower seed/oil seed, and exports a lot of other grains. Western agribusinesses such as Cargill and ADM are deep into Ukrainian agribusiness, as are, I’m sure, their western political lackeys.

If this escalates to the point where agricultural commodity exports stop or slow significantly, folks in Hoboken will be paying more for their cornflakes, and just about everything else.

It may be prudent to note that Egypt’s ongoing mess began essentially as food riots as the costs for staples rose and subsidies declined. Drought in Brazil, the world’s second largest exporter of corn, along with a political unwinding in Ukraine, could mean things get interesting in the next year or two.

rapier said...

I know nothing,less than nothing about Ukraine. I have only impressions gleaned most recently about The East in WWII, where the real holocaust was. Not so much knowing who to blame much less how it came to be, only that the possibility of stupendous violence seems built into the cake.

As to making trouble in the Western global economy or financial markets that's the wrong question. As the world stumbles into trouble the capital flows to the US keeping its stock and capital markets liquid and buoyant. That includes the EU. Perhaps especially the EU and 'old Europe,as Cheney called it.

I would not rule out rolling melt ups in the US stock market attracting more liquidity in a virtuous circle. Not a prediction of what will happen just what could.

John Smith said...

Heh. Good stuff.

There is one problem. The EU does not want to subsidize Ukraine (they would much rather prefer Norway, with its massive wad of cash) and there's little in Ukraine that the EU actually buys (not saying it's nothing, but comparatively little.)

Now, if subsidized gas prices are gone and Mother Russia's $15 billion are gone. What next? Russia won't play nice anymore with Kyiv. No more cheaper gas and quotas for steel pipes.

Basically, if Ukraine becomes insolvent by the end of the year, it will only have one way to go: East.

Ukraine is not Japan where its cars are world-renowned, they have some raw materials and steel... not much else.

stevelaudig@gmail.com said...

When wars end, borders get adjusted to reflect the outcome of the War. The Cold War ended and this is one of the latest border adjustments. States that rule multi-ethnic, or multi-national, countries are passing away now being remnants of when states and nations were property of kings. The members of the club of states are resisting the reality and showing how really stupid [not clever] they are. Institutions evolve. Resistance is futile.

Garryck said...

10100003 said...

Been looking for a good summary of what was going on. Excellent!!


If you're looking for good overviews of the situation in the Ukraine, here's another blog you should read. The Saker is very good.

In particular, this post:
The geopolitics of the Ukrainian conflict: back to basics

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/the-geopolitics-of-ukrainian-conflict.html

dan said...

Excellent , Informative article...Now replace a few words and bring it over to the USA...and we may soon see that the bought and paid for corrupt politicians and their enforcement thugs, ie. police and Federal Alphabets...will be put to task as are there comrades in the Ukraine....when the people wake the hell up.....as you can see..in the streets of Ukraine...might will loose to 'right' as in the BILL of RIGHTS....imho

Rock Trueblood said...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/19/viktor-yanukovych-army-chief_n_4817681.html


Amid a stagnating economy and soaring corruption, Ukrainians have been angered to see that Yanukovych's close friends and family have risen to top government posts and amassed fortunes since he came to power in 2010. Yanukovych's son, Oleksander, a dentist, has become a financial and construction magnate worth $187 million, according to Forbes Ukraine.

Mark Sebela said...

The Guardian 2013 Oct 29
Russia and Ukraine edge closer to 'gas war'

Russia supplies a quarter of Europe's gas and 80% of this transits through Ukraine...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/29/russia-ukraine-gazprom-gas-war

Patrick said...

Brilliant—thanks for translating this Dmitry. (Maybe Facebook® is good for something after all? ha ha).

The probable impacts on Ukrainian agriculture and the availability of its products reminds me of the situation in California, (extreme drought affecting everything), and the Upper Midwest (extreme cold affecting mainly fruit, so far—but also possibly aquatic life) makes me think we may be in for some real trouble food-wise in the near future.

clive mossmoon said...

But why now? After Putin faced down Obama on Syria Brzezinski was pissed at the incompetence. Hence the flank to the Ukraine to preoccupy Putin and give cover for moving on Syria. Zbig is even out in the MSM this time doing the PR himself. I would expect things to escalate from here.

Noah Linden said...

Just as I expected, the Western powers are attempting to enslave Ukraine and lure it into permanent debt via the IMF. They really stop at nothing in their attempt to exploit everyone and everything, including their own people.

The reason they are targeting Ukraine, it seems to me, is that they see Eastern Europeans as an inferior race only fit to be slaves. But the Westerners are so politically correct that they never admit to these dark thoughts. They keep pretending they want to help Ukraine, just like they've "helped" countless sub-Saharan African, Middle Eastern, Southeast Asian, and Latin American countries (where conditions have grown steadily worse for the last 50 years for most countries).

Lisa V said...

This piece explains clearly who is who and what is what
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/2/20/a_new_cold_war_ukraine_violence

Garde said...

Thank you, I really enjoyed reading this, and I feel much more informed than by any other source I have encountered so far. Nice birds-eye view, and in my opinion that must be Russian humor!

Ien in the Kootenays said...

Thanks for giving us a fresh perspective. I agree with the commentator who said that in final analysis, it is all about resources. My faith in the potato standard grows stronger by the day.

SydneyShanghai said...

we are shocked as far too much wealth has been stolen from Ukraine ? when will this be returned ? owner of 1 Hyde Park apartment spent 140 Million pounds but of whose real wealth ? what did he create to make such ready bucks? more truth explanation is crucial ? and who should be prosecuted ?