Apologies to the 18 people who bought tickets; they will be refunded.
I'll recycle the questions people have raised into blog posts instead.
Where? Studio 353 353 West 48 St. New York City, NY 10036
When? July 11, 2009 6:30-8:30 PM
How much? $20 (Buy tickets here.)
Here are some topics for you to choose from or add to (ahead of time) by submitting comments. The venue happens to be in New York, and I can talk fast, so let it rip. (This list came from Phil who organized the event. I'll pick items of interest based on the feedback I get.)
- How our society has moved from one of generalists to specialists making us especially vulnerable and resistant to reengaging with nature and our ability to have numerous skills.
- The continuing attraction of obtaining advanced degrees despite evidence that only debt and unemployment are the end results of such efforts.
- People returning to school recently for degrees in Urban Planning, Ecology, etc., with the belief that the degree will result in some great future: are they going to make a paradigm shift, or are they just smoking crack?
- The talk by many older “star” authors and speakers that there is a mass movement by our youth to recapture the spirit of the 1960’s and to correct the state of the world as it exists.
- The belief that the Internet and Digital Media are here to stay.
- Permaculture: There seems to be a real disconnect between theory and putting it into practice.
- Fixation with Permaculture as The Solution; how is that similar to/different from fixating on technology in general?
- Why is there a dire shortage of hippies in the country and what should the government do to address it?
- The ethics of reducing population and resource share: is there a distinction between planned population reduction and fascism?
- Can Permaculture avoid the trap of other movements that wind up in power when those in charge come to believe theirs is the only solution.
- Will Permaculture teachers continue jetting around until there is no jet fuel left?
- What can we do about the desire and pressure to continue having children while acknowledging the limited carrying capacity of the planet?
- Vegetarians and Vegans – How can not eating certain things solve the problem?
- Can a green economy help us continue on the road of exponential growth.
- What of all the talk of products and patents locked up by the evil oil companies that can deliver us from the problems we’ve created?
- Is a utopian society possible? What, at this point, qualifies as a utopian society? How would it be different from a dystopia?
- Are people ready or willing to make drastic changes and take the huge personal risks that circumstances demand?
- With so many forms of media at our disposal, are we less able to communicate than ever before.
- Are we on information overload. Can we still differentiation between what is true and false. How does one navigate this? Is it even possible?
- Why is there an enduring allure of technology as the great fix?
- Russia vs the US - where is Russia today? Where is the US today?
- How can we shield ourselves from the disintegration of social services, the money system, and other bits of communal life support?
- What things happened in Russia during descent that will/will not occur in the U.S.
- How do I feel knowing about this? How do I go on?
- What do I think of the Transition Town movement? Is it workable for all cities no matter their size?
- The Left: is it so fractured that the pieces can accomplish nothing of substance?
- Why is each segment seem oblivious to the interconnection that exists between the environment, energy and economy?
- Why is there still a belief that Obama can correct the situation despite evidence that it is business as usual (banking, healthcare, new automobile standards, automotive industry bailout, build more roads, etc.)?
- Why is the food movement focusing on bringing food to you instead of bringing you to food?
- Why is there all this talk of making changes, but little understanding that what is being suggested is akin to bailing out the Titanic using teaspoons?
- Why is there no understand that we don’t have 30 more years to course-correct?
- Why are those who speak the hard truth labeled as being ‘Doomers”?
- What would it mean to bear responsibility for the role each and every one of us plays in what is unfolding?
- How do we tap the creative spirit in ourselves?
55 comments:
I hope you get an audio or video recording of the event. I have very much enjoyed others posted on your blog.
Thank you, thank you, thank you, for at least hinting that there might be a problem with the Permaculture Movement in the US. The ratio of permaculture teachers/instructors, (and courses, certification programs, feel-good junkets to thirld world countries) to actual apple trees being planted seems woefully skewed in the wrong direction.
It's starting to feel like Amway. Everybody's selling Basic H but is anybody actually using the stuff to wash their clothes?
+1 on the audio/video recording.
LA is a little too far away to walk...
And I wish you'd come down to Atlanta. Amtrak does run down to our city. There are many of us who'd love to hear you.
I know what you're saying on the Permaculturists. I was part of a Permaculture meetup group for a while, but found we were doing more talking and looking at gardens than actual planting. It started to make more sense to me to stay home and work on my own gardens than to attend the meetings.
+1 more for the audio/video. I'm nearly finished on your book and have found it completely fascinating and now I want more!
Certification?? I've seen the video where the guy greens up the desert using Permaculture. It doesn't look that complicated! The hardest part would be digging the ditches. In this economy the guy operating the backhoe probably has a PHD and is still paying off student loans.
Who is your audience? People that have read your book? Does your audience need to be informed about where we are now in the collapse compared to Russia? What do you see coming down the road and when?
I think your list is WAY too long! It needs more focus. I like the topic of why don't people see what is happening? Is it information overload, media bias, that the government is lying to us? What will it take to wake the sheeple up? And what should we be doing in the meantime?
I've seen some of your presentations and you are an extremely engaging speaker. Very energetic and funny too. Your message is one that a lot of people don't want to hear, so your approach seems to get past folks natural defenses.
Good work and good luck!
hope to see you on the west coast soon
+1 more on the audio/video recording. I'd love to attend in person, but can't. Hope you can make it to Portland, Oregon some time...
The Bilderberg Group want you out.
You've been warned.
How about a webcast. I'm out in Southern Cali. (a student) and there's no way i'm gonna make it out there. My bike doesn't go that fast.
Such a lot of this resonates with me, particularly 'Are we on information overload. Can we still differentiate between what is true and false. How does one navigate this? Is it even possible?' I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
Oh, and I live in Scotland so would love to see a video of your talk or if not possible... another book! (no pressure!) :-)
Video would be good since we're on the other side of the world. The permaculture group locally is overrun with a most miserable bunch of vegetarians and vegans, I went to one meeting and left it at that (even the homemade cheese that I brought along was frowned upon - cruelty to animals, you see). Perhaps permaculture is not the one and only answer?
Topic for you: are western european nations (UK, France, Germany) any better equipped to handle or avoid collapse - I'm thinking that these have better public transport, more green movements, alternative energy and areas of strong local/family based culture.
Griff
I'm with anonymous/Griff above.
What are your thoughts about the rest of the world beyond the "evil superpower" contestants?
Which are desireable characteristics/assets that countries should have to shoulder coming hardships? Which are the liabilities?
There is a failed state index (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?page=1&story_id=4350). When will you provide us with a collapse-resistant state index? Or are they more or less the same?
Any thoughts? And since I'm in Sweden (total loser in the failed state race :) do please make the talk available by audio/video!
Would love to come, but I can't afford to go to New York. Please +1 for video recording.
A second note, on p.34 of the May 23,2009 Economist, California is considering releasing 38,000 people from prison, because they cannot afford to incarcerate them. Half are illegal immigrants who would be transferred to federal custody. What would then happen to the other 19,000? There are no jobs waiting for them and there would be drastically reduced social services for support. Just as you had predicted.
Talk about this one: "What can we do about the desire and pressure to continue having children while acknowledging the limited carrying capacity of the planet?" It's the toughest topic of all the ones you suggest. Wish I could come to NYC; I do hope you'll do a video or audio recording.
Mr. Orlov,
Perhaps the premise that people can be "woken up," must be re-examined?
I am so fortunate i was taught at a young age the value of work.
I am doubly fortunate to not live in a major city and still be tied to the land.
Will the survivors get it right the next time?
To all who ask for video/audio:
For me, a transcript would do just fine. I realize a few facial expressions/voice nuances might be priceless, but the 'meat' is in the text. It's cheap, and it gets the job done.
Plus, Dmitry asked for topics, not whining about how far one is from the NYC.
In that vein, I'd ask: would it make sense to relocate before TSHTF: is that moot, or should we stand our ground?
Aleš
Permaculture suffers the same fate of most gardening groups, which is talk, talk, talk, and no digging. I went to a 40 acre permaculture demonstration garden in northern california and they fed me spaghetti from Safeway!
Would love to hear an audio recording!
"Permaculture: There seems to be a real disconnect between theory and putting it into practice."
Yes, I am too poor to actually own land, and I expect the rent (ie. property taxes) to make more of us landless peasants in the long term. Kind of makes standard Permaculture practice a hobby for the rich?
"Vegetarians and Vegans – How can not eating certain things solve the problem?"
I am more or less Vegan for health and financial reasons. I'm not trying to solve anyone's problems except my own. Grains, legumes, and some vegetables and fruit are still cheaper than (subsidized) meat, dairy, and eggs from factory farms. Factory farming is an elaborate method of selling you animal fat (which your body doesn't need) and animal protein (which is not necessary unless one is physically starving). When factory farming fails as a commercial model, the Western McDiet will become prohibitively expensive. I don't have health insurance, so I can't afford to have high blood pressure, heart disease, or diabetes, all conditions directly related to the subsidized standard American diet.
Dave in Puerto Rico
The first topic hits the nail for me:
How our society has moved from one of generalists to specialists making us especially vulnerable and resistant to reengaging with nature and our ability to have numerous skills.
I live on the other coast. Wish I could come.
Any bit of recording would be greatly appreciated!
Why is there a dire shortage of hippies in the country and what should the government do to address it?The national bureau of statistics projects that hippie population is set to decline 30% over the next 25 years beyond its already dismal level.
We need the federal government to set up schools to train hippies. They need to extend funding to Universities to offer advanced degrees in Hippie Studies and voc/tech schools to offer training in the Hippie arts.
I echo all those who asked about video and who wanted to know about western european states.
The reasons people give for becoming vegans are worth considering, good morals, good health. I'm still not convinced, though, that living as a vegan isn't just living a contradiction. Ascetic lifestyles have been part of mankind's history as long as civilization. A lot of respected philosophies eschew asceticism, though, in favor of a balanced lifestyle that runs with the mainstream while still appreciating the margin. Maybe this is worth commenting on.
Dear Mr. Orlov,
I recently discovered your book "Reinventing Collapse" and your blog. I do plan on attending your seminar in New York and I am especially interested in your thoughts on two of the topics listed:
1) how our society is geared more towards "specialists" as opposed to generalists and how that makes us more vulnerable.
2) the continuing attraction of advanced degrees and the consequences for students.
Thank you for you time.
Sincerely,
Julie
"Will the survivors get it right the next time?"
The answer is NO
Whatever one generation learns, the next one looses and makes the same mistakes, and has to learn the hard way, and the nexr one...
Dmitry, hi. I like this one:
"What would it mean to bear responsibility for the role each and every one of us plays in what is unfolding?"
Seems that in order to take responsibility for something I first need to see that I'm not a victim. Are people willing to stop seeing themselves as victims of what is unfolding and see that we each have a part in it no matter how large or small?
Best of luck,
Bridget
PS An MP3 we could download of your talk would be great.
Being a doomer permaculturist I am intrigued by this speech. An mp3 or downloadable version would be excellent.
If your beef is that perma's "plan" too much and don't "dig" you could be right.
OK, Orlov, I'll be there. Will you accept US Dollars or must I pay in arrowheads and innertube patch kit materials?
Dimitry,a video of this would be a excellent thing to pay for a new bottom on your boat...I will purchase one,if within my budget.[I am buying long term seed now for storage].
As I was a hippie when a youth,I think it a easy thing to slip into the "old ways".I was raised by grandparents who taught me to grow what I eat,and eat what I grow.Its not hard,and much easier than working for a living......
I enjoyed your book immensely,and purchased 4 copies that have made the rounds of people whom I care about.It would be a good thing for you to make it up here to Portland Oregon.If you don't mind the travel,I will try and set up a venue if you are interested.
Be good sir,or be careful,as the world needs your voice to remind people where we are going...
snuffy
Please please talk about your thoughts on going back to school. I am considering doing this and am in total conflict about it.
Thanks.
"The talk by many older “star” authors and speakers that there is a mass movement by our youth to recapture the spirit of the 1960’s and to correct the state of the world as it exists."
It will surely take proportional representation and, like the French, making the politicians more fearful of the electorate than, as in the UK and US, vice versa.
Below is a link to a brief, but interesting item in the Daily Mirror:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2009/05/29/brits-loving-ooh-la-la-115875-21397452/
Mr. Orlov,
I plan on attending the event, every topic is interesting and important, so I do not choose any, though I have a question:
What do you think about Jaime Correa's 40% Plan?
He sounds too optimistic. Can you talk a little about him in connection with Permaculture
Mr. Orlov, my question is: When will people start to wake up about the scam that is the higher education industry, and how do you see this awakening taking shape? Will there be a mass movement away from higher ed eventually, or will it all just be in dribs and drabs with the so-called "poor non-college-bounds" being forced into the military? thanks.
Wow! I am an academic who knows damn well it is a Ponzi scheme, but I have fallen into a paradigm and I don't have the courage to get out, because I cannot vision what is next. It feels like the ground is crumbling from beneath my feet at such a rapid rate that I fear we might not have till a peaceful, civilized July.
I do use my position as a college professor as a bully pulpit to discuss some of these issues with my students.
The questions you are asking are stimulating, healthy, honest, I crave more of this kind of dialogue. I am obsessed with financial blogs right now because I keep wanting to try and see if I can time it, but I can't.
If you could make the info available some how from your July talk, or if you felt like commenting on "hanging on" to the old paradigm, I would be grateful.
I guess all of us would like to bend your ear!
Keep at it and good luck.
Many relatives and friends are unaware of the depth of the predicament we face and/or remain "optimistic." What is the best way to go about convincing these people to combine resources, buy adjacent lots in a town or rural community and begin preparing for the new economy? In your opinion, is this worth attempting or would one be better off leaving said people behind and forming new bonds?
Like what you said about permaculture. I'm really into permaculture but definitely not a 'permaculturist'. Holmgren and Mollison are pretty robust, very practical individuals and I don't think they'd have a lot of time for much of the crap that passes for permaculture. As Bill said (something like) I didn't climb to the top of the food chain to eat beans.
To all the vegetarians out there, I ask: "What have you got against plants?"
That's quite a list your colleague prepared, Dmitry!
Here's some "winners":
The belief that the Internet and Digital Media are here to stay. [aka Dreaming]
The continuing attraction of obtaining advanced degrees despite evidence that only debt and unemployment are the end results of such efforts. [I'm a college professor, so i can identity with this one. At our state university, student enrollment is at an all-time high, meanwhile the governor wants to furlough the faculty, staff and all state workers 3 days per month starting 1 July!]
How our society has moved from one of generalists to specialists making us especially vulnerable and resistant to reengaging with nature and our ability to have numerous skills. [I can already hear your answer to this, but it's important for others to hear]
The ethics of reducing population and resource share: is there a distinction between planned population reduction and fascism? [A better question would be: Will population reduction by planning make any difference at this late date? BTW, how late would you say it is?]
Why is there a dire shortage of hippies in the country and what should the government do to address it? [Ha ha. It's actually easy to become a hippie, you just need camping equipment, an old van, and funny cigarettes--the rest comes naturally.]
Can a green economy help us continue on the road of exponential growth? [An obvious answer is yes, for awhile, then a bigger collapse later.]
i'd like to hear/see more elaboration on permanent vs. nomadic living as a response to our upcoming crisis. in u'
r book u advocate 2 or 3 'camps', & wrote we should be thinking about these issues a lot; i am.
i have concluded of late that i am too close to a metro area though i am in a semi-rural area. hiding is my first impulse but that as u wrote is not a good response as we are social animals. tough issues for our family. u'r book was thoughtful re this issue. much thanks.
Among other things, I am interested in hearing about the position of people going into graduate school. It's peculiar because this has been one of the best ways to make money, for people who are strong in academics. Sure you can get a white collar job in other ways, but having a college degree is one of the best ways to gain access to that world. Now the whole paradigm is changing, leaving people with huge amounts of debt and few career prospects.
I am going down this path because right now, it is still one of the best ways to get a high-paying job. I would never go into debt to do it though. I will only do it if I can pay my way through assistanceships.
My vote for this topic for your July 11 event:
* How can we shield ourselves from the disintegration of social services, the money system, and other bits of communal life support?
Generally, I'd like to learn what sorts of problems our evolving crisis may be expected to present, what can we do to rationally prepare as best we can, and what we should probably not do. If that is not enough, how can we prepare while remaining functional in the present circumstances (especially since time-of-arrival of the four-horsemen of the apocolypse cannot be forecast)? I happen to be a rehabilitation physician, and must of necessity remain deeply engaged with the present system at many levels.
all of your topics are worthwhile, and this discussion would be one i'd actually pay money to download. sadly, can't take part here in Portland, OR.
the only ones i see cutting are "which things happened in russia will/not happen here?" the only reason people should look back on such things is to determine what worked, and see how it can be adapted to our present situation.
how about "how can someone with few/no family or social support networds make the transition?"
why are we going to college? because The Man says that's the only way to even fantasize about getting a job.
even employment in the plumbing (did i hear claims of "trades are great, as they can't be outsourced!") industry is being contracted out on a by-project basis. 6 months, and then you're back on the dole.
best of luck to all. we're going to need it!
Anonymous said:
"Talk about this one: "What can we do about the desire and pressure to continue having children while acknowledging the limited carrying capacity of the planet?" It's the toughest topic of all the ones you suggest. Wish I could come to NYC; I do hope you'll do a video or audio recording."
This is indeed the most elemental and central topic, but it is a taboo topic, unfortunately. I think that the Growth ideology which has done so much harm has also convinced people that the population can grow without limit.
Even within the framework of capitalism, today the problem is not the lack of workers, and has not been for many decades. The problem is the excess of people, including workers. If the logic is that by having more people you will have more payers for the debt in the future -- well, that's a hoax.
And for individual countries, you don't get surpluses by consumption, you get surpluses by exporting more than you import. This may require consuming far less. A smaller population is a good, not a bad thing.
Anyway, good luck trying to discuss overpopulation. Several years ago I mentioned this question to Jim Kunsler and he told me that he's not crazy enough to bring it up in front of an audience (in case somebody goes ballistic, I suppose). You mention it, they will shout 'Eugenics!' or 'Nazi!', and you don't get a discussion going.
That's an amazing list of topics to cover in one sitting...do we need to pack a suitcase and plan on spending the night. :)
Shortage of Hippies?
Often, in times of social instability, people come up with all sorts of assertions as to cause and effect. However, most of them are widely speculative, and downright foolish. The real answer? A chronic shortage of hippies has caused economic catastrophe and an unprecedented climate changed disaster. All problems could be solved by simply – becoming a hippie. The true cause to our current predicament is governmental propaganda, moral exhaustion, poor interpersonal skills, and a general social frenzy to become a consumption whore. In a time where all our inevitable problems seem to be converging, all we need is love. Well, maybe a whole lot of it.
One of the biggest concerns today is society's general willingness to accept the all is-well-propaganda of its failed government. Are there weapons of mass destruction? Are there terrorists in our back-yards? Most likely, the answer is no, but the government would have us believe otherwise. Only one generation of Americans seemed competent at resisting the insane, paranoid mania of the government – that's right, they were the hippies. So in a time of unparalleled crisis, let's draw upon the this hippie wisdom and protest government bailouts of the rich (or anyone in general), and capitalist exploitation of third world countries.
However, protesting government stupidity wasn't the only thing hippies were good at: they were resourceful, socially intelligent, and generally lived within their means. In other words, they didn't partake in ponzi-credit fantasies to finance a life of super-sized consumption – also know has the housing bubble. Instead of focusing on acquiring the hallow accomplishment of buying the latest meme – often a house – they developed real relationships and engaged in activities other than bankruptcy. As fun as bankruptcy is, it can't compare to getting baked all day.
Also, hippie morality could and would save the day. Divorce? Come on, fornication was culture and nothing to get touchy about. Drugs and legalization wouldn't be a problem. Gay marriages? What true hippie takes issue with a couple of guys, or women, in love? Anything can be solved with a bong and some weed. Okay, maybe a lot of weed.
Finally, this whole climate change issue, which is mostly a consequence of our inefficient consumer attitudes, can only be saved by the caring resourcefulness of hippies. For example, hippies drive mini-vans, not Hummers, and they pile as many people into that vehicle as they can possibly manage. This is quite the contrast to our popular social status-quo presumption of one person per vehicle. Talk about efficiency. They also wouldn't indulge themselves into McMansion idea of today's society. There is nothing more inefficient then for a society to give each individual a monstrous resource hog to live in. Hippies live with each-other; they live life smart and happy – as long as there's plenty of weed to go around, of course.
So the next time you hear some poor unfortunate fool boasting about how he knows what caused the current recession, just smile and laugh at him; we know better. Ask him whether or not he wants to help conqueror climate change, human rights infringements, and economic collapse. Because if he does, tell him that the only true solution – is to become a hippie. It's what almost worked in the past, and our only hope for the present. If that doesn't fly, then maybe try talking of the added benefit of having musicians that can once more produce quality tunes. Hoocoodonode?
Dear Mr. Orlov
While I find your arguments persuiasive, I cant follow the math.
Could you explain the numbers for saying that at 150$ per Barrel we spent 25% of World GDP on Oil?
My calculation goes like this:
85 Million Barrels per Day
x 365 Days
x 150 $ Price
=
Total Cost of oil 4.6 Trillion$
Global GDP = 60 Trillion$ (Wiki)
Oil/GDP = 4.6/60 = 7.6%
What numbers are you using?
Joa from Germany
To help those inclining towards reviving hippie culture and accepting life as it is and being happy anyways:
Stop And Smell The Roses, by Mac Davis
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3a5vN4tUl4
Hey Mister
Where you going in such a hurry
Don't you think it's time you realized
There's a whole lot more to life than work and worry
The sweetest things in life are free
And there right before your eyes
You got to Stop and Smell the roses
You've got to count your many blessings everyday
You're gonna find your way to heaven is a rough and rocky road
If you don't Stop and Smell the roses along the way
Before you went to work this morning in the city
Did you spent some time with your family
Did you kiss your wife and tell her that she's pretty
Did you take your children to your breast and love them tenderly
You got to Stop and Smell the roses
You've got to count your many blessings everyday
You're gonna find your way to heaven is a rough and rocky road
If you don't Stop and Smell the roses along the way
Did you ever take a walk through the forest
Stop and dream a while among the trees
Well you can look up through the leaves right straight to heaven
You can almost hear the voice of God
In each any every breeze
You got to Stop and Smell the Roses
You've got to count your many blessings everyday
You're gonna find your way to heaven is a rough and rocky road
If you don't Stop and Smell the Roses along the way...
To Dmitry
and to Lance Michael Foster -
THANK YOU.
In our life as it is now money is everything and everything is money.
And since money looses value, life looses value as well...for those who does not beleive that "The sweetest things in life are free"
Thanks Dmitry for posting the whole talk, so much to chew on and think about.
I just listened to a discussion of a book called "Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller" by Jeff Rubin. http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0627-3a.mp3. Worth a listen, haven't yet read the book.
This makes a similar argument about the point in question regarding role of oil spike and economic crash.
It is amazing that there are now increasing numbers of people like Dmitry making essentially a community service out of warning and advocating preparation for dramatic changes that lie ahead.
We all know that wishful thinking will take you about as far as your nearest suburb.
I e-mailed Brown Paper Tickets yesterday about getting a refund. They had no idea it was cancelled. Someone is going to tell them, right? As much as I like taking a train into the city, I'd rather not show up and find out at that point that no one else is going to be there.
I was not involved in setting up the venue or the ticket sails, but I am trying to look into it now. Everyone who bought a ticket should get a refund.
... of course I have been looking forward to this and would rather go if you could find a coffee house or something that could accommodate all 18 of us. :) I'll just call Studio 353 the day before to make sure it has been cancelled. Thanks,
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